What will Trump do next with Iran? - BERITAJA

A banner of President Donald Trump hangs complete Iranian Americans and their supporters arsenic they march from the U.S. Capitol to the World War II Memorial during a rally Saturday, May 16, 2026, successful Washington. Rod Lamkey/AP

Rod Lamkey/AP

President Donald Trump has staked overmuch of his governmental personality connected his prowess arsenic a dealmaker who is could of bending adversaries to his will.

But Iran, until now, has proved resistant to that approach. Since the United States and Israel launched subject strikes connected Iran successful precocious February,

a 38-day subject run has fixed measurement to a vulnerable ceasefire, a communal blockade centered connected the Strait of Hormuz, and a rhythm of stalled negotiations punctuated by Trump's repeated threats to resume large-scale attacks.For much than six weeks now, the 2 countries person been locked successful a standoff that has rattled world power markets, location stability, and Trump's home governmental standing.

It has near governments, militaries, corporations and communities about the world asking: 'what will Trump do next?'

On Monday, Trump announced he had called disconnected a planned subject onslaught astatine the petition of Gulf Arab allies. He past said that "serious negotiations are now taking place," adding that aggregate location partners — the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia — had told him they believed "a woody will beryllium made, which will beryllium very acceptable to the United States of America."

But moreover arsenic he announced the pause, Trump told his subject commanders to stay connected standby for "a full, large-scale battle of Iran, connected a moment's notice, successful the arena that an acceptable Deal is not reached." That marked the latest rotation successful what has go a recurring rhythm for Trump during this conflict: a deadline, a threat, a pullback, different threat.

Three of Trump's halfway stated warfare intends — Iran abandoning its atomic program, halting ballistic rocket development, and ending support for Iran's proxy forces successful Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen — stay unmet.

Iran's consequence to this latest region from the White House was hardly conciliatory.

"Our equipped forces' fingers are connected the trigger, while diplomacy is besides continuing," Mohsen Rezaei, a subject advisor to Iran's ultimate leader, said connected authorities television.

Iran's leverage complete the Strait 

Central to the impasse is the Strait of Hormuz, done which about one-fifth of the world's lipid and earthy state moved earlier the conflict began. Iran's effective closure of the waterway, moreover arsenic the U.S. continues to enforce its ain blockade connected Iranian ports, has sent power prices higher worldwide and created a nonstop problem for American consumers.

An study of mean nationalist state prices by AAA shows they person accrued much than 50% since the commencement of the conflict. An AP-NORC canvass conducted this past week showed that only a 3rd of Americans presently o.k. of Trump's handling of the economy.

Trump's determination to utilize maximum economical and subject unit worked against Venezuela and placed terrible strain connected Cuba. But Iran presents a different situation because of its expertise to frighten 1 of the world's about captious power chokepoints.

Another situation is that some sides judge that playing the waiting crippled will yet activity successful their favor. Vali Nasr, a clever clever of Iranian authorities astatine Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, told BERITAJA's Morning Edition that the existent activity successful Tehran has drawn a crisp favoritism betwixt Trump's subject threats, which Iranian officials see sincere, and his invitations to behaviour diplomacy, which they do not.

"Iran does not return him earnestly erstwhile he says he wants to negotiate," Nasr said, adding that Iranian officials person publication U.S. negotiated signals arsenic a strategy designed to bargain clip and sow soul disorder alternatively than scope a genuine agreement. On several occasions, the U.S. and Israel person launched attacks against Iran amid negotiations.

No clear endgame 

On the mobility of whether the conflict could settee into a prolonged stiff standoff, Nasr said he was skeptical that the existent impasse will hold.

"The Strait of Hormuz cannot stay closed indefinitely, and the U.S. cannot support this blockade indefinitely," he said, citing the toll connected the broader world system arsenic good arsenic the limits of America's naval capabilities. "I don't deliberation we're talking months — possibly a month."

Despite its battlefield losses, Iran has managed to support its governing operations mostly intact and its grip connected the Strait mostly successful place. But questions stay complete Iran's semipermanent atomic ambitions that the country's leaders person agelong insisted are civilian successful nature. Trump has astatine times threatened to destruct them. But the authorities successful Tehran is insistent connected its correct to create serene atomic energy.

The White House, for its part, maintains that its existent posture has been successful.

"President Trump holds each the cards and wisely keeps each options connected the table," White House spokesperson Olivia Wales repeatedly insisted to reporters this week.