Democratic presidential primary poll gets new frontrunner - BERITAJA

New York progressive tops a crowded section successful study by the about meticulous pollster of the 2024 election, signaling a imaginable shake-up successful the Democratic Party’s 2028 statesmanlike race.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has taken the apical spot successful a 2028 Democratic statesmanlike superior canvass for the first time, pinch 26 percent support successful a caller AtlasIntel survey. The consequence marks a awesome displacement successful the early race, which had antecedently been led by much centrist Democrats.

The study of 2,069 U.S. adults was conducted and it carries a separator of correction of positive aliases minus 2 percent points.

A canvass that carries weight

The study is drafting attraction because of AtlasIntel’s way record. As Newsweek antecedently reported, the patient was classed the about meticulous pollster of the 2024 predetermination by Nate Silver and was besides named the about meticulous pollster of the 2020 predetermination by FiveThirtyEight.

One of the biggest findings is the diminution of erstwhile Vice President Kamala Harris, who had agelong been viewed arsenic the party’s frontrunner. Harris placed 4th pinch 13 percent support.

The canvass showed Ocasio-Cortez astatine 26 percent, up 10 points since AtlasIntel’s December 2025 survey. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg vanished 2nd astatine 22 percent, while Gavin Newsom came successful 3rd astatine 21 percent, down 14 points from the erstwhile poll.

Other Democrats included Andy Beshear astatine 4.1 percent, Cory Booker astatine 3.9 percent, Josh Shapiro astatine 2.4 percent and Gretchen Whitmer astatine 1.1 percent.

What different polls show

The AtlasIntel study differs sharply from respective caller polls.

A Harvard/Harris canvass released successful April 2026 showed Harris starring pinch 50 percent support among Democrats, up from 41 percent successful March. Newsom followed astatine 22 percent, while Ocasio-Cortez received 8 percent. That study questioned 2,745 registered voters betwixt April 23 and April 26 and had a separator of correction of positive aliases minus 1.87 percent points.

A YouGov canvass besides showed Harris up astatine 24 percent, followed by Newsom astatine 12 percent. Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg each received 9 percent support.

What prediction markets show

Despite Ocasio-Cortez’s emergence successful the AtlasIntel poll, prediction markets stay cautious. In Kalshi, Ocasio-Cortez held an 8.2 percent chance of winning the Democratic primary, compared to Newsom’s 25 percent and Harris’ 9.1 percent.

Polymarket showed akin odds, giving Newsom a 24 percent chance, Harris 9 percent and Ocasio-Cortez 8 percent.